The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated around the 265,000 mark, with overall tight supply at the mine end [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on May 20, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs. It opened at 265,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 264,860 yuan/mt. In the morning session, it fluctuated rangebound around the 265,000 yuan/mt level, with market trading activity being moderately weak. From recent trends, tin prices have been consolidating within the range of 263,000-266,000 yuan/mt since mid-May, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war over the logic of "tight balance in the short term vs. easing in the long term."

​​Mine Production Resumptions Progress, but Short-Term Impact Limited​​: In April, tin ore imports from Myanmar amounted to 2,300 mt (equivalent to approximately 1,123 mt (metal content)). Myanmar's tin ore imports in April increased by 5.58% MoM. The production resumption progress at the Manxiang mining area in Wa State has been slow, with new license approvals and infrastructure reconstruction yet to be completed. Incremental supply is expected to be released only in H2. Myanmar's tin ore exports in April remained below 3,000 mt. Coupled with critically low inventories of raw materials, it is difficult to alleviate the shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Although the Bisie mine announced phased production resumptions in early April, the production halt from mid-March to early April led to a reduction in annual supply. Hindered transportation may put pressure on imports from May to July. The proportion of imports from Africa has increased, but the increment is limited.

​​​​Upside Support​​: Low inventories, high backwardation, and rigid supply constraints in the smelting sector limit price declines.

​​Downward Pressure​​: Expectations of mine production resumptions (DRC, Myanmar) and weak demand suppress speculative sentiment. Coupled with increased macro uncertainties, there is significant resistance near the 266,000 yuan/mt level (near the 60-day moving average).​​